The lingering effects of Winter Storm Fern continue to ripple through the U.S. transportation network, tightening trucking capacity and delaying the market correction many expected after the 2025 holiday peak. Instead of the usual January slowdown, elevated spot rates have stretched into late January 2026, driven by widespread weather related disruptions that affected more than 40 states and stalled freight movement across key regions.
What was anticipated to be a seasonal cooldown has turned into a prolonged capacity squeeze. Heavy snowfall, freezing rain, and prolonged subzero temperatures disrupted operations nationwide, keeping trucks sidelined, slowing distribution centers, and pushing carriers to operate cautiously in the interest of safety.
Winter Storm Fern swept through the country between January 23 and 25, dumping over 20 inches of snow in some regions, triggering mass flight cancellations, and causing power outages that impacted millions of residents and businesses. The Southern Plains, Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast were among the hardest hit areas, where vital interstate corridors experienced significant disruptions.
Major highways such as I-20 and I-85 faced closures due to ice accumulation, accidents, and downed power lines. These conditions forced carriers to reroute freight, reduce transit speeds, and apply weather related surcharges. As a result, capacity tightened across dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed segments, particularly in weather sensitive lanes.
Rejection rates surge in key freight markets
The impact was especially visible in Chicago, Harrisburg, and Dallas, where tender rejection rates spiked both before and after the storm. Carriers are now rejecting 10.7% of loads in Chicago and 11.9% in Harrisburg, while the national average rejection rate has climbed to 11.5% a sharp signal of tightening capacity and increased carrier leverage.
These elevated rejection levels indicate that routing guides are under pressure, forcing shippers to turn to the spot market more frequently and at higher prices.
In the storm’s aftermath, trucking operations across Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia experienced distribution center closures, delayed appointments, and reduced service windows. Even where facilities reopened, congestion and labor shortages slowed throughput, extending the disruption well beyond the storm itself.
SONAR data shows that while the spot market briefly paused, the relief was short-lived. The National Truckload Index (NTI) seven day average dipped to $2.59 per mile, down slightly from $2.61 earlier in the month. However, ongoing network inefficiencies quickly pushed rates back up to $2.60 per mile, reinforcing the persistence of elevated pricing.
Holiday peak conditions linger into January
The current environment mirrors the pressure seen during the 2025 holiday season, when e-commerce demand and inventory restocking pushed spot rates up nearly 10% year over year in December. Historically, January demand falls by 15-20% as retail activity slows, but Winter Storm Fern disrupted that cycle.
Delayed grain movements on iced-over sections of the Mississippi River, congestion at major air cargo hubs in Atlanta, Dallas, Fort Worth, and Memphis, and the surge in cleanup and recovery freight have created a demand rebound at an unusual time of year. At the same time, safety concerns and equipment downtime have reduced the number of trucks available to move that freight.
Refrigerated capacity has come under particular strain as shippers work to protect temperature sensitive goods from extreme cold and transit delays. Industry observers have already flagged an uptick in reefer demand as food, pharmaceutical, and agricultural shippers scramble to secure capacity.
As one industry commentator noted on social media, Winter Storm Fern is actively reshaping the market, with reefer volumes rising and spot rates showing signs of upward pressure.
Broader supply chain disruptions add pressure
The trucking market is also absorbing overflow from other transportation modes. UPS and FedEx temporarily suspended operations at several hubs, while rail providers including BNSF on key Midwest routes experienced snow related slowdowns. These interruptions pushed additional volume onto trucks, further straining capacity.
Federal hours of service waivers issued across roughly 40 affected states have provided limited relief, but industry leaders warn that underlying capacity constraints remain. Ongoing regulatory enforcement and fleet reductions continue to shrink the available truck pool, reinforcing the imbalance between supply and demand.
What this means for shippers and carriers
For shippers, the outlook includes higher transportation costs, longer lead times, and less reliable service. Retailers operating just-in-time supply chains face increased risk of stockouts, while manufacturers and agricultural producers dependent on southern and central corridors are more exposed to input delays.
For carriers, the environment supports stronger pricing power, but also requires careful risk management as winter driving conditions persist.
Market indicators suggest continued instability through the first quarter. The NTI remains up 18 cents per mile year over year, while tender rejection rates have climbed 443 basis points, reinforcing signs of sustained capacity tightness. With La Niña weather patterns pointing to continued winter volatility, additional storms could further disrupt freight flows.
Transportation managers and supply chain leaders should closely monitor tender acceptance rates, routing guide compliance, and regional capacity trends, remaining ready to adjust strategies and pricing as conditions evolve. In a winter shaped by extreme weather, flexibility and proactive planning will be critical to keeping freight moving.
