The U.S. had significantly fewer workers in truck transportation than initially estimated, according to newly revised employment data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its February employment report, incorporating its annual model revisions for job figures. Each August, the agency provides an early indication of the expected adjustments based on the data available at that time.
In August, the BLS projected that the transportation and warehousing sector would be among the few segments showing notable employment growth. The revised numbers, published on Friday, indicate that total employment in transportation and warehousing reached 6,711,400 in January 2025, up from 6,583,800 the previous year.
However, the trucking industry experienced significant declines not just compared to a year earlier, but also in 2023.
When the BLS initially releases its preliminary August data, it only provides figures for overall sectors, not specific sub sectors like truck transportation or warehousing. The revised report now shows that truck transportation employment in December 2024 stood at 1,545,900 jobs, a reduction of 27,800 from December 2023.
Originally, when December employment figures were reported in January under the old model, the year-over-year difference appeared to be just 5,900 jobs. This discrepancy is seen throughout the report, with November 2024 versus November 2023 initially showing a decline of 3,400 jobs but now revised to reflect a drop of 28,900 jobs.
As the timeline approaches the present, these discrepancies expand into the tens of thousands. The final reported figures for truck transportation employment in December 2024 were initially 1,545,900 but have now been revised to 1,518,100. Similarly, the end-of-2023 figure has been adjusted downward from 1,551,800 to 1,534,600. The revised 2022 year-end figure, however, saw a slight increase from 1,586,900 to 1,587,700.
Despite these downward adjustments, January 2025 employment in truck transportation showed a modest gain, with jobs reported at 1,521,900—an increase of 3,800.
David Spencer, Vice President of Market Intelligence at one of the logistics company, described these revisions as “significant.”
“They bring total trucking employment back to roughly pre-COVID levels, up just 0.34% from February 2020.” Spencer told FreightWaves via email. He noted that any employment gains achieved during the pandemic-driven boom have now been erased by persistent rate declines. While spot rates have recently stabilized, showing slight inflationary pressure year-over-year, the outlook remains uncertain for truckload carriers awaiting rate recovery.
Surge in Warehouse
In contrast to trucking, warehouse employment saw a substantial upward revision. The new data shows that warehouse jobs in December 2024 totaled 1,842,800—an increase of more than 70,000 from the previously reported 1,770,300.
Shannon Gabriel, Vice President of the Leadership Solutions Practice at TBM Consulting, monitors employment trends through job postings on platforms like LinkedIn and Monster. She noted that January job postings in logistics and supply chain remained steady at 332,000, closely mirroring December’s 331,000 openings.
“This aligns with the latest jobs report, showing little change in the transportation sector apart from a slight increase in trucking employment.” Gabriel said in an email to FreightWaves.
Gabriel also observed a rise in resumes from supply chain professionals marked as “ready to work now,” which she suggested could be due to job losses caused by the California wildfires.
Other Key Employment Metrics
The hourly wage for truck transportation production and nonsupervisory employees remained above $30 for the second consecutive month. These figures, reported with a one-month lag, confirm that wages exceeded $30 in both November and December for the first time.
The unemployment rate for the transportation and warehousing sector declined to 3.6% in January, down from 4.3% in December. Since the pandemic, this 3.6% figure has been reached several times but has never dropped lower. By comparison, the unemployment rate was 3.4% in January 2020, before spiking to 15.7% in May 2020 at the height of pandemic-related job losses.
The revised data paints a clearer picture of employment trends, revealing that trucking employment has weakened more than previously believed, while warehouse jobs have seen significant growth.
