This seasonal slow-down typically lasts until March, give or take a few weeks to account for the variable timing of the spring thaw in the north.
The market will improve, but don’t expect a post-COVID boom.
Federal regulatory rollback should help carriers to an extent, but state regs will remain a concern.
Carrier Authorities – A Declining Trend
Since the beginning of January, the freight market has seen a net loss of 579 carriers. This marks a significant shift, with more carriers exiting the market than entering.
While the number of new monthly carriers was roughly flat between the middle of 2016 and 2020, this number more than tripled in less than a year after the beginning of the pandemic. Over 95% of carriers operate ten or fewer trucks, and these small operations have less of a financial safety net than their larger peers. Now is the time for carriers of all sizes to make strategic investments that will position themselves for long-term growth as their industry recovers.
Freight Volumes and Rejections
2025 has started with freight volumes below 2024 levels, signaling a sluggish start to the year. Conversely, rejection rates have increased, averaging 7.2% compared to the same period last year. This indicates tighter capacity, though the lack of overall volume offsets spot market benefits.
Diesel prices have started 2025 lower than 2024, averaging $3.56 per gallon. However, they are climbing, likely influenced by seasonal weather trends. Rising fuel costs could further strain carrier profitability in the coming weeks.
Spot Market Breakdown
Dry Vans – Rates: Weekly rates increased by 2 cents per mile. Yearly rates are up 2%, indicating slight improvement.
Volumes: Weekly: +37%. Yearly: -23%.
Top Markets: Dallas, TX Surrounded by hot markets, offering strong negotiating power. Atlanta, GA Improved conditions with nearby warm and hot markets. Kansas City, MO Lukewarm, with limited negotiating power due to surrounding cool markets. Green Bay, WI Similar challenges as Kansas City.
Reefers – Rates: Weekly rates increased by 10 cents per mile. Yearly rates are up 2.5%.
Volumes: Weekly: +28%. Yearly: +0.4%.
Top Markets: Fort Worth, TX Hot market but surrounded by cooler areas. Twin Falls, ID Strong negotiating power with minimal deadheading. Ontario, CA Consistently hot with limited dilution from surrounding regions.
Flatbeds – Rates: Weekly rates dropped by 3 cents per mile. Yearly rates are 2% lower.
Volumes: Weekly: +78% (post-holiday surge). Yearly: -30%.
Regional Insights: South and Midwest These regions dominate in load volume. Negotiating Power States like Louisiana, Michigan, and Arkansas are strongholds with higher load-to-truck ratios. Under Capacity Areas Northeastern states such as Massachusetts and Rhode Island present opportunities for better rates.
(Note – this is data from the beginning of 2025.)
Focus on Digital Transformation
Carriers should explore new processes and technologies that will help them operate more efficiently, improve visibility and data management and better adapt to shifting economic conditions and freight cycles. There are many ways for carriers to streamline fleet management, workflows, communications, and other operations to decrease costs and improve performance. Carriers can implement unified software platforms that facilitate communication, collaboration, and data sharing across the company. These platforms are more accessible than they are now, which is particularly valuable for the smaller carriers that have limited IT budgets and make up a disproportionate share of the industry.
Market Observations and Tips
Broker Behavior – Brokers appear more willing to negotiate due to tightening capacity, especially for flatbeds in adverse weather conditions.
Weather Impact – Seasonal weather challenges are influencing carrier availability, particularly for flatbed operators.
Monitor weather trends and hot markets closely to maximize your negotiating power in the spot market.
The freight market is undergoing significant shifts, with opportunities emerging despite the challenges.
By making pivotal investments in technology and other drivers of efficiency now, carriers will ensure that they’re prepared for whatever the future might bring.
