Winter Reset- As many drivers gather with family for the Thanksgiving holiday, the U.S. trucking industry enters a familiar seasonal cycle: the annual capacity shakeout.
Every year, between Thanksgiving and Valentine’s Day, the market experiences a noticeable and recurring surge in carrier exits, often rising far above the rate seen during the rest of the year.
This annual correction clearly reflected in SONAR’s Carrier Detail Net Changes in Trucking Authorities (CDNCA), consistently shows that more carriers shut down than new ones enter during this period. With the trucking market still recovering from the Great Freight Recession, the longest downturn in modern trucking history, many fleets are operating with strained cash flows, weakened balance sheets, and limited room for error.
A Data Backed Pattern That Returns Every Winter
CDNCA data tracks weekly changes in active trucking authorities, measuring how many are revoked versus newly granted. Year after year, the chart reveals the same sharp decline in net capacity, starting in late November and extending into mid February.
Even in strong freight years such as 2018 and 2021, the industry still experiences a clear net loss of operating authorities during this holiday to winter window. New carrier startups slow dramatically, while revocations surge, creating a predictable seasonal dip.
As the original post noted: “’Tis the season to purge capacity. The trucking industry typically experiences a purge of net capacity from Thanksgiving to Valentine’s Day. Even in strong markets, fewer new carriers launch during this period.”
The accompanying CDNCA visuals, especially the yellow authority loss indicators, reinforce this recurring trend.
Why Carriers Exit: Pressures Behind the Annual Shakeout
The winter months bring a combination of forces that make survival difficult, especially for smaller or newly formed operations. Key drivers include:
- Seasonal Declines in Freight Demand – The post peak season slowdown reduces freight volumes, compresses rates per mile, and shrinks profit margins. Marginal carriers often lack the cash reserves to handle this revenue dip.
- Harsh Winter Operating Conditions – Cold-weather regions bring:
– Higher maintenance costs
– Increased downtime
– More breakdowns and delays
– Lower fuel efficiency
These added expenses frequently wipe out the limited profits that small carriers rely on. - Driver Workforce Volatility – Many drivers head home for the holidays only to rethink returning to the road. long hours, family separation, and burnout push some to seek alternative employment. When drivers don’t return, carriers face fixed expenses without available labor leading some to close their doors.
- International Driver Challenges – This year could see an additional wave of exits due to foreign born drivers returning home amid visa uncertainties or immigration tightening. If these drivers choose not to come back, their departure contributes to the broader capacity contraction.
Longer Term Market Correction Intensifies the Impact
The industry has been in a capacity reset cycle since 2023, driven by low spot rates, contracting freight demand, and normalization after the pandemic boom. Today:
- Carrier profitability remains historically weak
- Fleet orders are focused on replacement units, not expansion
- Operating costs (insurance, equipment, maintenance) remain elevated
SONAR’s tender rejection index frequently shows tightening capacity through late November and mid January evidence that fewer available trucks coincide with seasonal exits.
While the Thanksgiving to Valentine’s season always brings a predictable adjustment, the depth of the correction expected for 2025 could significantly influence how quickly the industry stabilizes.
A Challenging Winter Ahead
The question facing fleets this year is no longer whether capacity will decline, but how severe the decline will be.
The combination of economic pressure, seasonal freight weakness, and labor constraints may turn this annual purge into one of the defining events of the upcoming year.
As fleets navigate another winter of uncertainty, only the most financially resilient, operationally strong, and strategically prepared carriers will make it through trucking’s never ending cold season.
